Improving Strategic Choices Under Uncertainty
Unknown-Unknowns and Strategic Exposure
Strategic Exposure Group was founded on a simple premise:
Some information about the future can be anticipated and analyzed. Some can be anticipated but not reliably quantified. And some cannot be anticipated at all.
Understanding these distinctions is important because they give rise to different forms of uncertainty and therefore require a different approach to decision-making.
The objective is not to eliminate uncertainty. It is to make better decisions despite it.
We help organizations pursue that objective by improving the quality of decisions made under uncertainty.
For many years, our work focused on helping organizations understand and address uncertainty arising from circumstances that could not reasonably be anticipated in advance — the unknown-unknowns that traditional risk-management approaches are not designed to prevent or mitigate.
Yet some of the most significant disruptions faced by organizations arise not from risks that were identified and mismanaged, but from implicit assumptions, conditions, events, or interactions that were never anticipated in the first place.
Understanding uncertainty arising from such unanticipated circumstances is essential to making better decision. [Learn more about Unknown-Unknowns and Strategic Exposure]
Generative AI and Strategy Development
Building on this foundation, our work has expanded to include the application of generative AI to strategy development and strategic decision-support processes.
Most organizations are asking how AI can make existing work faster or more efficient. While those benefits are important, we are also exploring a broader question:
How can AI help organizations explore a broader range and scope of alternatives before narrowing to a preferred strategy?
In other words, before settling on a strategy.
The question matters because uncertainty sits at the center of strategic decision-making.
But an organization’s ability to examine assumptions, opportunities, and uncertainties is often limited by the range and scope of alternatives it can realistically generate, compare, and evaluate before narrowing the field.
AI has the potential to fundamentally change how strategy is developed.
Used properly, AI’s processing capability can help decision makers broaden both the range and scope of what can be examined, increasing the likelihood that important assumptions, opportunities, and uncertainties will be surfaced before strategic commitments are made.
AI does not eliminate uncertainty, not does it guarantee that important opportunities will be recognized.
But it can make broader exploration practical
The objective is not simply to reduce uncertainty or uncover new opportunities.
It is to improve the quality of strategic choices.
We believe AI can make that practical by enabling a broader examination of strategic alternatives before commitments are made.
[Learn more about AI and Strategy Development]
This is the focus of Strategic Exposure Group. Drawing on extensive operating and advisory experience, we help senior managers and policy decision makers improve the quality of strategic choices under uncertainty, including uncertainty arising from assumptions, unforeseen developments, and circumstances that could not reasonably be anticipated in advance.
Please contact us via email at KPaul@StratExpoGroup.com to learn more and how we can help you address these critical issues effectively.
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